Downtown Violent Crime is Down Over the Past 10 Months, but Burglary is Up

Violent crimes in downtown Santa Cruz have dropped significantly this year, as have most property crimes, according to a report by the city's police department released Tuesday.

However, one crime, burglary, is up 50 percent.

"I believe much of it has to do with the overall state of the economy," said Police Chief Kevin Vogel, of the rise in stealing items or money from people. "People are committing crimes of opportunity, most of which involve stealing property."

Department statistician Zach Friend said the shift in numbers over one year isn't particularly significant, because the department looks at trends over a 10-year-period. However, he added that with population increasing, the percentage of crimes overall is lower than it seems.

By the numbers: aggravated assaults are down 17 percent, with  103 reported downtown in 2010 and 86 reported in 2011. An aggravated assault is a fight in which a weapon is used or extreme violence with hands or feet.

Robberies are down 29 percent, from 17 in 2010 to 12 in 2011. Those are crimes in which a person uses threat or force to steal from another.

Theft, which includes shoplifting, is down 2 percent, from 173 to 169. Car theft is down 18 percent, from 11 to 9.

The big exception is burglary, in which a person uses force to break into a car, residence or store to steal. They have gone up 50 percent, from 20 to 30 in the first 10 months of the year.

Friend, who has championed a predictive policing campaign for the department said those numbers have started to drop in the few months its been in use. The department's predictive policing model has been getting press coverage around the world for its ability to predict where a burglary might happen, in much the same way as scientists gauge when an aftershock would happen after an earthquake.

Friend said people often measure safety by the number of violent crimes, but are most affected by property crimes. For example, he said, city wide there were 2,000 thefts, but only one homicide, so people are more likely to have an encounter with law enforcement over having something stolen, than facing a violent crime.

You can track the city's weekly crimes here, on a map.

Annual crime figures are available here and montly statistics can be seen here.