British Bobbies Take a Spin With Santa Cruz Predictive Policing

The computer model used to predict where the next property crime might happen in Santa Cruz just switched over the the wrong side of the road.

After months of study and weeks of training with Santa Cruz officers, police in Kent, England, with a population of 1.4 million, have put the system created by area mathematicians and police into action. They've also taught Santa Cruz Police, who were the first to use it in the world, a few lessons.

Using a theory that crime sets off waves like the aftershocks of an earthquake, police enter a number of factors into a computer model that tells them were the next similar crimes will possibly occur. Some of the factors include the addresses of known burglars and where and when burglaries have taken place in the past.

At the meetings before each patrol shift, officers are given a map with possible crime locations on them. Some are obvious, such as a downtown parking garage, but others defy conventional wisdom, such as some streets at 8 a.m. after people have left for work. Most people assume burglaries are a night time thing.

Clark says the program has led to some good crime numbers: burglaries were down 11 percent last year; arrests were up 56 percent; recovered stolen cars were up 22 percent; robberies were down 27 percent. 

Kent Police have taken up the challenge in a big way. Not only are officers being briefed in every shift, like in Santa Cruz, but they are doing an entire 24-hour shift with all of the officers, as well as fire departments, working in the predicted crime areas.

So what did the British Bobbies teach Santa Cruz?

To be more interactive with the community in the predictions, says Clark.  When the British police see a neighborhood come up as a predicted target, they call a neighborhood meeting and let everyone know.

"They use the opportunity to engage the community in a different way," says Clark, who spent a week in December and one in May in Kent. "They call an impromptu meeting and say, 'Your neighborhood here has a high probability of a crime being committed, let's look at why that is. Let's work together.'"

Clark, a 28-year-veteran officer, wants to have the Santa Cruz community participate more in the program and even wants to roll out the mobile police station into areas where crimes are predicted.

He said he learned a lot from the English police about community relations.

"With us, we go in to hunt and arrest. That's always the focus of American police. The British officer goes in there, and I think, really applies problem solving at a higher level. They look for a lot of causal things. They look for something as simple as somebody's door is unlocked."

What about the fact that officers don't carry guns in England?

Clark says there are teams on call at each shift who have guns, but most beat officers don't have them. He says it makes for a more open conversation with people.

In the states, when officers talk to someone, they are always careful about keeping their gun away from the person, he says. So, they stand to the side, always wary of the chance of a person grabbing the holster.

In England, officers stand straight facing the person they are talking to, making for a more relaxed, open conversation. But don't think they aren't tough, he says. Police there have more license to respond when attacked and the courts don't look down on an officer using his fists when attacked, the way they do here.

"Here, we try to control you without hitting you, without punching you. Over there, you are going to get punched. You are going to get laid out, by the officer and his partner."

The English police also take more advantage of technology. There are video cameras everywhere, monitoring everything on streets and public buildings. When officers make arrests, they are not only monitored by GPS systems, but they are watched in a video control room, a system that Americans have fought against because of what they consider to be invasion of privacy.

There are license plate readers on the roads, so police can track every car almost all the time, and find suspects more easily. 

On the flip side, he says that British police are more in touch with the concept of policing at the will of the people.

"In other words, 'we police you because you allow us to police you,'" he says. "In reality that's the way it is. Police work should never work against the will or the norms of the society they protect. We don't always look at it that way, American police. At times I think some police departments have an attitude of policing is our right, rather than an authority granted to us."